Ogled vira Pandemija covida-19

{{Infopolje Pandemija
| name            = Pandemija covida-19
| map1            = COVID-19 Outbreak World Map Total Deaths per Capita.svg{{!}}upright=1.5
| legend1         = {{Center|Potrjene smrti na 100. 000 prebivalcev<br />dne 18. oktobra 2021}}
{{collapsed infobox section begin|div=y|{{nowrap|Primeri na prebivalca}}}}
| map2            = COVID-19 Outbreak World Map per Capita.svg{{!}}upright=1.46
| legend2         = {{Center|Zemljevid potrjenih primerov na prebivalca}}
{{div col |colwidth=8em |gap=0 |class=plainlist}}
* {{legend inline|#290000|>10%}}
* {{legend inline|#510000|3–10%}}
* {{legend inline|#900000|1–3%}}
* {{legend inline|#c80200|0.3–1%}}
* {{legend inline|#ee7070|0.1–0.3%}}
* {{legend inline|#ffc0c0|0.03–0.1%}}
* {{legend inline|#ffdfe0|0–0.03%}}
* {{legend inline|#e0e0e0|Nič/ni podatkov}}
{{div col end}}
{{collapsed infobox section end|div=y}}
| image           = Covid-19 SP - UTI V. Nova Cachoeirinha.jpg<!-- PLEASE DISCUSS POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THIS PHOTO AT THE TALK PAGE BEFORE MAKING THEM. -->
| image_upright   = 1.35
| caption         = Medicinska sestra oskrbuje bolnika s COVID-19 na [[Oddelek za intenzivno nego|oddelku za intenzivno nego]]
| disease         = [[COVID-19|koronavirusna bolezen 2019]] (COVID-19)
| virus_strain    = [[SARS-CoV-2|koronavirus sindroma akutne<br/>respiratorne stiske 2]] (SARS-CoV-2)
| location        = svet
| first_outbreak  = veleprodajna tržnica z morsko hrano Huanan
| index_case      = [[Vuhan]], [[Hubej]], [[Ljudska republika Kitajska|Kitajska]]<br />{{coord|30|37|11|N|114|15|28|E|type:adm2nd_region:CN-42}}
| date            = 1. december 2019 – sedanjost<br />(pred {{Starost v dnevih|2019|12|1}} dnevi)
| source          = [[netopirji]], morda tudi [[luskavci]]<ref>{{navedi revijo |title=Identifying SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins |journal=[[Nature]] |date=26 March 2020 |doi=10.1038/s41586-020-2169-0 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0_reference.pdf |accessdate=27 March 2020|last1=Lam |first1=Tommy Tsan-Yuk |last2=Shum |first2=Marcus Ho-Hin |last3=Zhu |first3=Hua-Chen |last4=Tong |first4=Yi-Gang |last5=Ni |first5=Xue-Bing |last6=Liao |first6=Yun-Shi |last7=Wei |first7=Wei |last8=Cheung |first8=William Yiu-Man |last9=Li |first9=Wen-Juan |last10=Li |first10=Lian-Feng |last11=Leung |first11=Gabriel M. |last12=Holmes |first12=Edward C. |last13=Hu |first13=Yan-Ling |last14=Guan |first14=Yi |pmid=32218527 }}</ref><ref name="WHO report 28 February 2020"/><ref name="ia56U"/>
| confirmed_cases = > {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|conround|editlink=|ref=}}{{efn|Skupno število potrjenih primerov do tega datuma. Dejansko število okuženih je verjetno bistveno višje.<ref name="LauKhosrawipour2020"/>}}
| recovery_cases  = > {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|recround|editlink=|ref=}}
| deaths          = > {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|dround|editlink=|ref=}}
| territories     = 200+<ref name="WOM">{{navedi splet |url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries |title=Coronavirus Update (Live)—Worldometer |website=ncov2019.live}}</ref>
}}

'''Pandemija covida-19''' ali '''pandemija koronavirusne bolezni 2019''' je trenutni globalni izbruh [[covid-19|covida-19]], ki jo povzroča [[SARS-CoV-2|koronavirus sindroma akutne respiratorne stiske 2]] (SARS-CoV-2).<ref name="zU2Bk" /> [[Nalezljiva bolezen]] je izbruhnila decembra 2019 v mestu [[Vuhan]] v kitajski provinci [[Hubej]]. [[Svetovna zdravstvena organizacija]] je zaradi širjenja 30. januarja 2020 razglasila javnozdravstveno krizo mednarodnih razsežnosti, 11. marca 2020 pa ga je označila za [[pandemija|pandemijo]].<ref name="WHO_PHEIC_decl2" /><ref name="WHOpandemic2" /> Na dan {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|date|editlink=|ref=no}} je bilo potrjenih več kot {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|conround|editlink=|ref=no}} primerov bolezni COVID-19 v več kot 200 državah in ozemljih,<ref name="WOM"/> umrlo je več kot {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|dround|editlink=|ref=no}} ljudi, {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|ref=yes}} po dotlej zbranih podatkih je {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|recround|editlink=|ref=no}} ljudi ozdravelo.{{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|ref=yes}} 30. maja 2020 je število potrjeno okuženih po vsem svetu preseglo 6 milijonov.

Virus se prenaša ob bližnjem stiku{{efn|WHO definira bližnji stik kot en meter razdalje med osebami,<ref name="WHO2020QA" /> ameriški CDC pa dva metra.<ref name="CDCTrans" />}} in s kapljicami [[slina|sline]] ter nosnih izločkov, ki jih človek izloča v okolje ob kašljanju, kihanju ter govorjenju.<ref name="WHO2020QA" /><ref name=ECDCQA/><ref name="CDCTrans" /> Te drobne kapljice se izločajo tudi pri [[Pljučno dihanje|dihanju]], a v tem primeru hitro padejo proti tlom in se ne širijo po zraku na daljše razdalje.<ref name="WHO2020QA" /><ref name="Modes">{{navedi splet |title=Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations |publisher=Svetovna zdravstvena organizacija |accessdate=2020-04-03 |language=en |date=2020-03-29}}</ref> Oseba se lahko okuži tudi tako, da se dotakne kontaminirane površine in nato svojih oči, nosa ali ust.<ref name="WHO2020QA" /><ref name="CDCTrans" /> Virus je obstojen do nekaj dni na trdnih površinah.{{efn|Podatki različnih študij se nekoliko razlikujejo; obstojnost je odvisna od začetne koncentracije, materiala in temperature. Detekcija s sodobnimi virološkimi metodami ne odraža nujno zmožnosti okužbe.<ref name="NIH stability"/><ref name="ChinChu2020"/>}} Oboleli je najbolj kužen prve tri dni po pojavu [[simptom]]ov, vendar je prenos možen že pred pojavom simptomov in v kasnejših fazah bolezni.<ref name="CDCTrans" /><ref name=":2">{{navedi splet |url=https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=5ae25bc7_4 |title=Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 73 |date=2020-04-02 |publisher=Svetovna zdravstvena organizacija |accessdate=2020-04-03}}</ref> [[Inkubacijska doba|Čas med izpostavljenostjo in pojavom simptomov]] je običajno okrog pet dni, sega pa vse od dva do 14 dni.<ref name="CDC2020Over222" /> Običajni simptomi so [[vročina]], suh kašelj in zadihanost,<ref name="CDC2020Over222" /> med komplikacijami pa sta [[pljučnica]] in [[sindrom akutne dihalne stiske]] (ARDS).<ref name="WxJWu" /> V začetnih fazah pandemije ni bilo [[cepivo|cepiva]] ali specifičnega [[Protivirusno zdravilo|protivirusnega zdravila]] za zdravljenje bolezni COVID-19,<ref name="WHO2020QA" /> zato je bilo zdravljenje [[Simptomatsko zdravljenje|simptomatsko]] in podporno.<ref name="APVG0" /> Najbolj priporočeni preventivni ukrepi so [[umivanje rok]], pokrivanje ust ob kašljanju oz. kihanju, držanje fizične razdalje od drugih ljudi in opazovanje ter samoizolacija za vse, ki pri sebi sumijo na okužbo.<ref name="WHO2020QA" /><ref>{{navedi splet |url=https://www.gov.si/teme/koronavirus/preprecevanje-okuzbe/ |title=Preprečevanje okužbe |publisher=[[Vlada Republike Slovenije]] |date=2020-04-03 |accessdate=2020-04-04 |archive-date=2020-04-01 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200401100044/https://www.gov.si/teme/koronavirus/preprecevanje-okuzbe/ |url-status=dead }}</ref>

Za zajezitev širjenja virusa so po številnih delih sveta uvedli omejitve potovanj, [[karantena|karantene]], policijske ure, zapiranje javnih ustanov, nadzor nad [[Varnost in zdravje pri delu|tveganjem na delovnem mestu]] in prestavitve ali odpovedi javnih dogodkov. Med ukrepi so državne ali regionalne karantene (začenši s popolnim zaprtjem Hubeja),<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Shao |first=Peng |date=2020-03-17 |title=Impact of city and residential unit lockdowns on prevention and control of COVID-19 |url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035253v1 |journal=MedRxiv |pages=2020.03.13.20035253 |doi=10.1101/2020.03.13.20035253}}</ref> policijska ura na Kitajskem in v [[Južna Koreja|Južni Koreji]],<ref name="SCMP 20200206" /><ref name="AutoDW-7" /><ref name="AutoDW-8" /> zapiranje meja oz. omejevanje prihoda popotnikov,<ref name="zvkCF" /><ref name="t3EJB" /> preverjanje zdravja na letališčih in železniških postajah<ref name="AutoDW-9" /> ter prepovedi zapuščanja države.<ref name="CDC Travel" /><ref name="Level4" /><ref name="EUPrepares" /> Tudi v [[Slovenija|Sloveniji]], kjer je bil prvi primer okužbe odkrit 4. marca 2020, je [[Vlada Republike Slovenije|vlada]] zaradi [[Pandemija covida-19 v Sloveniji|širjenja pandemije]] uvedla prepoved zbiranja in gibanja na javnih mestih (z izjemami), zaprla vse vzgojno-izobraževalne ustanove in ustavila javni potniški promet.<ref name="STA povzetek" />

Pandemija je že povzročila hude socialno-ekonomske motnje po vsem svetu,<ref name="NYT-20200229" /> prestavitev ali odpoved pomembnih športnih, verskih in kulturnih dogodkov<ref name="NYTcancellations" /> ter strah pred pomanjkanjem, ki je ponekod sprožil panično nakupovanje.<ref name="W7Y6Y" /><ref name="c5kOh" /> V več kot 160 državah so zaprli šole in univerze, bodisi na lokalni, bodisi na državni ravni, kar ovira šolanje skoraj 90 odstotkov učencev na svetu.<ref name="BloombergSchools" /><ref name="UNESCO2020" /> Hkrati so se začele po [[svetovni splet|svetovnem spletu]] širiti številne dezinformacije in [[Teorija zarote|teorije zarote]] o virusu,<ref name="EZGH5" /><ref name="r7xem" /> zabeleženi pa so bili tudi posamezni [[ksenofobija|ksenofobni]] izpadi, usmerjeni proti [[Kitajci|Kitajcem]] oz. ljudem z vzhodnoazijskim izgledom, kot tudi tujcem iz drugih žarišč bolezni po svetu.<ref name="NYT Racism" /><ref name="guardian29032020"/><ref name="HWwxd" /><ref>{{navedi splet|url=http://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20200319-foreigners-feel-the-heat-of-kenya-s-coronavirus-fears-nairobi-covid-19-xenophobia-european-mzungu|title=Foreigners feel the heat of Kenya's coronavirus fears|date=2020-03-19 |website=RFI|language=en|access-date=2020-03-29}}</ref>

== Epidemiologija ==
[[slika:Covid-19 SP - Santo Andre's hospital at peak of pandemic.jpg|thumb|320px|]]
31. decembra 2019 je zdravstveni urad v kitajskem Vuhanu poročal o skupku primerov pljučnice neznanega vzroka,<ref name="AutoDW-69" /> zato je bila v začetku januarja 2020 sprožena preiskava.<ref name="bbc50984025" /> Večino primerov so povezali z veleprodajno tržnico z morsko hrano Huanan, kjer prodajajo tudi žive divje živali, zato predvidevajo, da je virus ''[[zoonoza|zoonotičen]]'' – na človeka je preskočil z živali.<ref name="characteristicsZH" /> Novoodkriti virus, ki je soroden netopirskim koronavirusom in [[SARS koronavirus|SARS-koronavirusu]], je dobil oznako SARS-CoV-2<ref name="LancetNowcasting" /><ref name="ECDC risk assessment" />

Prvi znani okuženi, pri katerem so se pojavili [[simptom]]i, je zbolel 1. decembra 2019 in ni bil povezan s kasnejšim skupkom primerov.<ref name="AutoDW-67" /><ref name="Wang24Jan2020" /> Od kasneje prepoznanega skupka sta imeli dve tretjini obolelih povezavo s tržnico.<ref name="Huang24Jan2020" /><ref name="Joseph24Jan2020" /><ref name="han24Jan2020" /> Kitajske oblasti so zaradi hitrega širjenja uvedle strogo karanteno za mesto Vuhan<ref name="channelnewsasia12306684" /> in jo kasneje razširile na 15 mest v provinci Hubej.<ref name="bZ2hk" /> Kasneje so bili sprejeti ukrepi za omejevanje širjenja tudi v številnih drugih mestih, po oceni naj bi bilo bolj ali manj strogim omejitvam gibanja na javnih površinah podvrženo 760 milijonov ljudi ali več kot polovica kitajskega prebivalstva.<ref name="6nex7" />

Konec februarja 2020 je Svetovna zdravstvena organizacija poročala, da se je širjenje bolezni na Kitajskem upočasnilo, nenadoma pa se je epidemija začela hitro širiti v [[Italija|Italiji]], [[Iran]]u in [[Južna Koreja|Južni Koreji]]. 26. februarja je število novih potrjenih primerov izven Kitajske prvič preseglo število znotraj Kitajske.<ref name="AutoDW-21" /> 2. aprila 2020 je število uradno potrjenih primerov po svetu preseglo milijon, 15. aprila 2 milijona, 27. aprila 3 milijone (od tega milijon v ZDA), 8. maja 4 milijone, 21. maja 5 milijonov in 30. maja 6 milijonov.

=== Primeri ===
Podatek o številu primerov pomeni število ljudi, ki so bili [[Testiranje za COVID-19|testirani za COVID-19]] in pri katerih je bil test pozitiven po uradnem protokolu.<ref name="WHOtest"/> Število dejansko okuženih je verjetno znatno višje, saj mnogi, ki nimajo simptomov ali izražajo samo blage simptome, niso testirani zaradi organizacijskih, finančnih in materialnih omejitev zdravstvenega sistema.<ref name="LauKhosrawipour2020"/> V številnih državah so se oblasti odločile, da bodo testirani le ljudje z resnejšim potekom bolezni. Med njimi so Italija,<ref>{{navedi novice|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-response-specialre-idUSKBN20Z27P|title=Special Report: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics|date=13 March 2020|work=Reuters|access-date=30 March 2020|language=en}}</ref> [[Nizozemska]],<ref>{{navedi splet|url=https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5069046/coronavirus-jaap-van-dissel-rivm|title=RIVM: verspreiding coronavirus lijkt af te remmen|date=25 March 2020|website=RTL Nieuws|language=nl|access-date=30 March 2020}}</ref> [[Španija]],<ref>{{navedi splet|url=https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-23/640000-rapid-coronavirus-tests-arrive-in-spain.html|title=640,000 rapid coronavirus tests arrive in Spain|last=Vizoso|first=Elena G. Sevillano, Pablo Linde, Sonia|date=23 March 2020|website=EL PAÍS|language=en|access-date=2 April 2020}}</ref> in [[Švica]].<ref>{{navedi novice|url=https://www.derbund.ch/schweiz/standard/bund-sucht-nicht-mehr-alle-coronainfizierten/story/20389898|title=Bund sucht nicht mehr alle Corona-Infizierten|work=Der Bund|access-date=30 March 2020|language=de|issn=0774-6156}}</ref> Tudi v Sloveniji testirajo le osebe z razvito akutno okužbo dihal iz treh skupin:<ref name="MzZdr Definicija"/>
* pred ali med hospitalizacijo
* zdravstveni delavci
* oskrbovanci domov za ostarele in socialno-varstvenih zavodov

Nobena država doslej ni testirala več kot nekaj odstotkov prebivalcev.<ref name="BBC_Mortality"/>

=== Smrtnost ===
[[slika:COVID-19 Outbreak World Map Total Deaths per Capita.svg|thumb|320px|

{{Center|Zemljevid smrtnih primerov na prebivalca<br/><small>(na dan 4. aprila 2020)</small>}}
{{legend|#980043|100+ smrti na milijon}}
{{legend|#dd1c77|10–100 smrti na milijon}}
{{legend|#df65b0|1–10 smrti na milijon}}
{{legend|#c994c7|0.1–1 smrti na milijon}}
{{legend|#d4b9da|0,01–0,1 smrti na milijon}}
{{legend|#d1d0e6|>0,01 smrti na milijon}}]]

Večina obolelih za COVID-19 ozdravi. Pri tistih, ki ne, je bil čas med pojavom simptomom in smrtjo 6 do 41 dni, največkrat 14 dni.<ref name="pathogenesis" /> Na {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|date|editlink=|ref=no}} je bilo bolezni pripisano {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|dround|editlink=|ref=yes}} smrti.<ref name="AutoDW-22" />

Prva potrjena žrtev nove bolezni je bila 9. januarja 2020 v Vuhanu.<ref name="AutoDW-25" /> Prva žrtev izven Kitajske je bila zabeležena 1. februarja na [[Filipini]]h,<ref name="NYT2020PhilDeath" /> izven Azije pa 14. februarja v [[Francija|Franciji]].<ref name="AutoDW-27" /> Do 13. marca je več kot 40 držav in ozemelj na vseh celinah razen Antarktike poročalo o smrtih, povezanih z okužbo z virusom SARS-CoV-2.<ref name="HN0sa"/>

V [[epidemiologija|epidemiologiji]] uporabljajo različna merila za vrednotenje smrtnosti.<ref name="CDC_principles"/> Vrednosti se razlikujejo med regijami sveta in se spreminjajo s časom, nanje med drugim vplivajo obseg testiranja, kakovost zdravstva, dostopnost zdravljenja, čas od izbruha in starostna ter spolna struktura prebivalstva, kot tudi splošno zdravstveno stanje ljudi.<ref>{{navedi splet |url=https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk |title=What do we know about the risk of dying from COVID-19? |last=Ritchie |first=Hannah |last2=Roser |first2=Max |date=25 March 2020|editor-last=Chivers|editor-first=Tom |website=[[Our World in Data]]|url-status=live|access-date=28 March 2020}}</ref>

Razmerje med umrlimi in potrjenimi primeri je število smrti deljeno s številom diagnosticiranih primerov v določenem časovnem obdobju. Za COVID-19 znaša na {{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|date|editlink=|ref=no}} po globalni oceni {{Zaokroži|{{#expr:{{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|deaths|editlink=|ref=no}}/{{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|confirmed|editlink=|ref=no}}*100}}|1}} % ({{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|deaths|editlink=|ref=no}}/{{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|confirmed|editlink=|ref=no}}).{{Cases in 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic|ref=yes}}

Med merili sta še [[smrtnost]], ki odraža odstotek umrlih diagnosticiranih, in smrtnost okuženih, ki odraža odstotek vseh umrlih za boleznijo (ti dve merili nista časovno omejeni). Zaradi hitrega spreminjanja situacije in razlik med državami, tako po strukturi prebivalstva kot po pristopu do obvladovanja epidemije, imajo ocene teh za pandemijo v svetovnem merilu zelo veliko stopnjo negotovosti.<ref name="CEBM">{{navedi splet|url=https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/|title=Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates|publisher=Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine|access-date=2020-04-05|archive-date=2020-05-18|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200518190820/http://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates|url-status=dead}}</ref>

=== Trajanje ===
Stališče WHO je, da je možno pandemijo nadzorovati.<ref name="WHOpandemic2" /> Tudi brez ukrepanja se izbruhi nalezljivih bolezni sčasoma ustavijo, ko zmanjka primernih gostiteljev, vendar je nemogoče zanesljivo napovedati, kdaj bo vrhunec in kdaj se bo izbruh končal. Verjetno se to ne bo zgodilo povsod hkrati.<ref name="the-scientist.com"/> Višji svetovalec za medicino kitajske vlade je ocenil, da bi se lahko končal do junija, če bi se vse države držale WHO-jevih navodil za omejevanje širjenja,<ref name="the-scientist.com"/> drugi epidemiologi pa pravijo, da bodo ukrepi, kot je fizično ločevanje ljudi, potrebni, dokler ne bo razvito cepivo (kar lahko traja 18 mesecev ali več).<ref name="pfyes"/><ref name="Resnick"/> Nekateri epidemiologi mislijo, da bi lahko epidemija trajala celo do leta 2023, če ne bo cepljenih dovolj ljudi. Možno je tudi, da bo COVID-19 zaradi visoke [[kužnost]]i povzročitelja postala sezonska bolezen kot [[gripa]]. Kužnost vsako sezono bo v tem primeru odvisna od [[Čredna imunost|čredne imunost]]<nowiki/>i in stopnje [[mutacija|mutacij]] virusa.<ref name="e7bko"/>

== Opombe ==
{{notelist}}

== Glej tudi ==
* [[pandemija covida-19 v Sloveniji]]

== Sklici ==
<div class="reflist columns references-column-width" style="-moz-column-width: 30em; -webkit-column-width: 30em; column-width: 30em; list-style-type: decimal;"><references responsive="0">
<ref name="LauKhosrawipour2020">{{navedi revijo |last1=Lau |first1=Hien |last2=Khosrawipour |first2=Veria |last3=Kocbach |first3=Piotr |last4=Mikolajczyk |first4=Agata |last5=Ichii |first5=Hirohito |last6=Schubert |first6=Justyna |last7=Bania |first7=Jacek |last8=Khosrawipour |first8=Tanja |display-authors=4 |title=Internationally lost COVID-19 cases |journal=Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection |year=2020 |doi=10.1016/j.jmii.2020.03.013 |pmid=32205091}}</ref>
<ref name="zU2Bk">{{navedi splet |title=Coronavirus disease 2019 |url=https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 |publisher=Svetovna zdravstvena organizacija |accessdate=2020-03-15}}</ref>
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</references></div>

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[[Kategorija:Covid-19]]
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