Javnomnenjske raziskave za volitve predsednika Združenih držav Amerike 2024
Pred prihajajočimi ameriškimi predsedniškimi volitvami 2024 različne agencije izvajajo javnomnenjske raziskave, z namenom ocene volilnega namena v ZDA. Rezultati teh anket so predstavljeni v tem članku.
Navedene javnomnenjske ankete zaobsegajo obdobje od junija 2022 do danes.
Izvajalci[uredi | uredi kodo]
Javnomnenjske raziskave volilnega namena redno izvajajo tri agencije:
- Morning Consult,
- Premise,
- YouGov Polling (izvaja predvsem za časopis The Economist),
- Echelon Insights,
- McLaughlin & Associates,
- Kaplan Strategies.
Rezultati[uredi | uredi kodo]
Generalne volitve[uredi | uredi kodo]
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden[uredi | uredi kodo]
Izid volitev med Trumpom in Bidnom po anketah sodeč obeta tesen izid, saj noben od kandidatov nikoli ni v pretirani prednosti.[1]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca |
Donald Trump Republikanec |
Joe Biden Demokrat |
Prednost |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30. oktober - 1. november 2023 | HarrisX | 2.021 | 51% | 49% | Trump +2 |
22. - 26. oktober 2023 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.100 | 48% | 43% | Trump +5 |
16. - 23. oktober 2023 | HarrisX | 3.029 | 45% | 41% | Trump +4 |
20. - 22. oktober 2023 | Morning Consult | 5.000 | 43% | 43% | enako |
18. oktober 2023 | Harris Poll | 2.116 | 52% | 48% | Trump +4 |
16. - 17. oktober 2023 | Emerson College | 1.578 | 47% | 45% | Trump +2 |
12. - 16. oktober 2023 | YouGov | 1.123 | 43% | 44% | Biden +1 |
11. - 16. oktober 2023 | Premise | 1.850 | 43% | 37% | Trump +6 |
13. - 15. oktober 2023 | Zogby Analytics | 869 | 49% | 51% | Biden +2 |
13. - 15. oktober 2023 | Morning Consult | 5.000 | 41% | 43% | Biden +2 |
10. - 15. oktober 2023 | Selzer & Company Grinell College |
784 | 40% | 40% | enako |
10. - 12. oktober 2023 | J.L. Partners Daily Mall |
neznano | 45% | 44% | Trump +1 |
8. - 10. oktober 2023 | YouGov The Economist |
1.500 | 38% | 38% | enako |
6. - 9. oktober 2023 | Beacon Research Fox News |
1.007 | 48% | 49% | Biden +1 |
30. september - 3. oktober 2023 | Survey USA | 2.330 | 43% | 43% | enako |
28. september - 2. oktober 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 1.725 | 47% | 45% | Trump +2 |
28. - 29. september 2023 | HarrisX | 1.615 | 45% | 42% | Trump +3 |
22. - 24. september 2023 | Morning Consult | 6.000 | 42% | 43% | Biden +1 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy[uredi | uredi kodo]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca |
Donald Trump Republikanec |
Joe Biden Demokrat |
Robert F. Kennedy Neodvisni |
Prednost |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22. - 26. oktober 2023 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.100 | 39% | 37% | 14% | Trump +2 |
17. - 20. oktober 2023 | YouGov | 1.000 | 37% | 38% | 14% | Biden +1 |
11. oktober 2023 | Marist College PBS Newshour |
1.218 | 37% | 44% | 16% | Biden +7 |
6. - 9. oktober 2023 | Beacon Research Fox News |
1.007 | 41% | 41% | 16% | enako |
3. - 5. oktober 2023 | Cygnal | 2.000 | 40% | 39% | 12% | Trump +1 |
3. - 4. oktober 2023 | Ipsos Reuters |
1.005 | 33% | 31% | 14% | Trump +2 |
25. - 28. september 2023 | Echelon Insights | 1.011 | 40% | 36% | 14% | Trump +4 |
Primarne volitve[uredi | uredi kodo]
Republikanci[uredi | uredi kodo]
-
Donald Trump
-
RonDeSantis
-
Vivek Ramaswamy
-
Nikki Haley
-
Tim Scott
-
Chris Christie
-
Asa Hutchinson
-
Doug Burgum
-
Ryan Binkley
Favorit za republikansko nominacijo je Donald Trump, sledita pa mu Ron DeSantis in Vivek Ramaswamy. Ostali kandidati bolj zaostajajo in imajo manjše možnosti.[2]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca | Trump | DeSantis | Pence | Haley | Ramaswamy | Scott | Christie | Burgum | Hutchinson | Elder | Suarez | Hurd | Johnson | Binkley |
AVGUST 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
17. - 21. avgust | HarrisX | 1.057 | 52% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
15. - 17. avgust | Morning Consult | 2.476 | 58% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% | / | 0% | 0% | / | / |
12. - 15. avgust | YouGov | 567 | 53% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / | / |
11. - 14. avgust | RMG Research | 229 | 60% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 13% | 2% | 5% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
11. - 14. avgust | Beacon Research (FoxNews) | 413 | 53% | 16% | 5% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / |
9. - 10. avgust | Kaplan Strategies | 800 | 48% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | / | / | / | / | / |
2. - 7. avgust | Premise | 484 | 57% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
5. - 6. avgust | co/efficient | 1.638 | 55% | 13% | / | / | 4% | / | 5% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
1. - 3. avgust | Cygnal | 841 | 53% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | / | 0% | 0% |
JULIJ 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
24. - 27. julij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 399 | 56% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / |
23. - 27. julij 2023 | The New York Times | 932 | 54% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / |
24. - 26. julij 2023 | Big Village | 718 | 61% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | / | / | 1% | 0% |
18. - 22. julij 2023 | JMC Analytics | 1.100 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | 0% | / |
17. - 18. julij 2023 | Kaplan Strategies | 800 | 48% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 12% | / | 5% | 0% | 1% | / | / | / | / | / |
13. - 17. julij 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 727 | 54% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 0% | / | 0% | 0% | 0% | / | / |
7. - 14. julij 2023 | Premise | 435 | 58% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
11. - 13. julij 2023 | Morning Consult | 2.476 | 58% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | / | 0% | 0% | / | / |
8. - 11. julij 2023 | YouGov | 549 | 49% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / | / |
5. - 7. julij 2023 | TIPP Insights | 486 | 53% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | / |
JUNIJ 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
26. - 29. junij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 413 | 49% | 16% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | / | / |
19. - 20. junij 2023 | Emerson College | 362 | 59% | 21% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | / | / |
16. - 20. junij 2023 | Hart Research Associates | 500 | 51% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / |
15. - 19. junij 2023 | McLaughlin & Associates | 454 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | / | / | 1% | / | / | / |
14. - 16. junij 2023 | Morning Consult | 2.476 | 59% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | / | / | / | / | / |
9. - 14. junij 2023 | Big Village | 724 | 56% | 15% | / | 5% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | / |
10. - 13. junij 2023 | YouGov | 530 | 51% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
9. - 12. junij 2023 | Premise | 716 | 57% | 22% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
Demokrati[uredi | uredi kodo]
-
Joe Biden
-
Dean Phillips
-
Marianne Williamson
Trenutno je edini favorit za nominacijo aktualni predsednik Joe Biden, saj protikandidata za njim precej zaostajata.[3]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca | Biden | Kennedy | Williamson | ||||||
AVGUST 2023 | |||||||||||
17. - 21. avgust 2023 | YouGov (Yahoo News) |
495 | 69% | 7% | 5% | ||||||
17. - 21. avgust 2023 | HarrisX | 970 | 64% | 13% | 4% | ||||||
16. - 17. avgust 2023 | Emerson College | 392 | 69% | 9% | 4% | ||||||
11. - 14. avgust 2023 | RMG Research | neznano | 64% | 13% | 4% | ||||||
11. - 14. avgust 2023 | Beacon Research (Fox News) |
399 | 64% | 17% | 9% | ||||||
10. - 14. avgust 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 666 | 72% | 13% | 9% | ||||||
2. - 4. avgust 2023 | TIPP Insights | 500 | 63% | 15% | 4% | ||||||
JULIJ 2023 | |||||||||||
24. - 27. julij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 500 | 62% | 16% | 5% | ||||||
24. - 26. julij 2023 | Big Village | 922 | 63% | 20% | 9% | ||||||
19. - 24. julij 2023 | McLauglin & Associates |
428 | 65% | 13% | 3% | ||||||
20. - 22. julij 2023 | Morning Consult | 800 | 71% | 12% | 4% | ||||||
19. - 20. julij 2023 | Harris Poll | 765 | 62% | 16% | 5% | ||||||
13. - 17. julij 2023 | YouGov | 494 | 69% | 7% | 5% | ||||||
13. - 17. julij 2023 | Quinnipac University | 763 | 71% | 14% | 7% | ||||||
5. - 7. julij 2023 | TIPP Insights | 616 | 60% | 16% | 5% | ||||||
JUNIJ 2023 | |||||||||||
26. - 29. junij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 511 | 65% | 14% | 4% | ||||||
23. - 26. junij 2023 | Beacon Research | 441 | 64% | 17% | 10% | ||||||
19. - 20. junij 2023 | Emerson College | 441 | 73% | 15% | 3% | ||||||
16. - 20. junij 2023 | YouGov | 485 | 67% | 8% | 4% | ||||||
14. - 15. junij 2023 | Harris Poll | 381 | 54% | 14% | 5% | ||||||
9. - 14. junij 2023 | Big Village | 916 | 60% | 18% | 11% | ||||||
8. - 12. junij 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 722 | 70% | 17% | 8% | ||||||
5. - 9. junij 2023 | Suffolk University | 293 | 58% | 15% | 6% | ||||||
4. - 6. junij 2023 | Rasmussen Reports | neznano | 67% | 17% | 2% |
Sklici[uredi | uredi kodo]
- ↑ »Latest Polls«. FiveThirtyEight. Pridobljeno 31. oktobra 2023.
- ↑ »Who's ahead in the national polls?«. FiveThirtyEight. Pridobljeno 19. junija 2023.
- ↑ »Who's ahead in the national polls?«. FiveThirtyEight. Pridobljeno 19. junija 2023.